According to the report of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, Bulgaria is expected to record a strong grain harvest in the 2025/26 marketing year, with wheat production reaching around 7 million tons. These are the forecasts following the report of a sharp decline due to serious droughts and exceptionally high temperatures.
Since June of this year, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture has reported that agricultural producers are expected to reduce the area planted for the 2025-2026 season from 503,000 hectares planted for 2024-2025, which was established as the third consecutive year with significantly lower average yields of wheat. From 3.25 tons/hectare to 4.4-5 tons/hectare in 2024, the planted areas are expected to reach forecasted yields of 1.8-2.1 million tons for 2025-2026 (compared to the achieved 1.6 million tons for 2024-2025).
The low yields were attributed to low levels of rainfall. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, from the end of 2024 to May 2025, approximately 185,000 tons of wheat were exported, with the main destination being Greece, compared to a total export of 548,000 tons for the same period 2023-24.
Average temperatures in combination with insufficient rainfall have negatively impacted the yields of essential crops and have contributed to high wheat yields and barley. According to FAS, wheat yields are expected to reach 7 million tons, while barley is expected to reach 1 million tons for 2025-2026. The expectations for these two crops are that these figures will improve.
Graph 1 Weekly sales in BGN/MT for wheat for the MY 2023/24 (May – in bright green) to MY 2024/25 (May – in dark green) at the Ministry of Agriculture based on weekly bulletins for the markets of basic stocks and services.
By the end of May 2024/2025, wheat exports are expected to reach 5.63 million tons, of which 4.5 million tons are expected to be from countries outside the European Union. The main exports of wheat are to Algeria, Egypt, Spain, Thailand, and Greece.
The market for barley exports has increased for 2024-25, and by the end of May, the volumes are expected to reach 740,000 tons, of which 360,000 are expected to be from countries outside the European Union. The main exports are expected to be barley to Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Spain, Portugal, and Morocco.
