According to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Bulgaria is expected to have a strong grain season in the 2025/26 marketing year, with wheat production reaching approximately 7 million tons. These forecasts follow a sharp decline last year, attributed entirely to severe droughts and exceptionally high temperatures.
In its June report this year, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture notes that farmers are cautious about their planting intentions due to losses over the past three years. The private sector plans to plant 400,000 to 450,000 hectares for the 2025–2026 crop year, compared to up to 503,000 hectares planted for 2024–2025, which marked the third consecutive year of significantly below-average corn yields. From 3.25 tons/hectare to 4.4–5 tons/hectare in 2024, planted areas are projected to reach 1.8–2.1 million tons for 2025–2026 (compared to the 1.6 million tons achieved in 2024–2025).
Low yields kept exports at low levels. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, from the end of 2024 through May 2025, we exported approximately 185,000 tons of corn, with Greece as the primary destination, compared to total exports of 548,000 tons for the same period in 2023–24.
Spring temperatures, combined with insufficient rainfall, had a favorable impact on fall crops and contributed to high yields of wheat and barley. According to the FAS, wheat yields are expected to reach 7 million tons and barley yields 1 million tons for 2025-2026. The outlook for these two crops is for these figures to improve.
Figure 1: Weekly sales in BGN/MT for wheat for the period MY 2023/24 (May – light green) through MY 2024/25 (May – dark green), as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture based on weekly bulletins on the markets for basic commodities and services.
By the end of May 2024/2025, wheat exports reached 5.63 million tons, of which 4.5 million tons were to countries outside the European Union. We mainly exported wheat to Algeria, Egypt, Spain, Thailand and Greece.
Market demand for barley exports rose in 2024–25, and by the end of May, volumes reached 740,000 tons, of which 360,000 tons went to countries outside the European Union. We mainly exported barley to Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Spain, Portugal and Morocco.
